The Biggest Elections the world has ever seen is coming towards an end and we're inching towards Results Day. But let me give a break down on what most of the media seems to be saying.
1. There is a HUGE anti-Congress Wave across the country
o Indeed, this is the surest prediction of pundits across the political spectrum.
o But why do they think so?
§ Congress has ruled India for 10 years - a very long time. In any healthy democracy, there is bound to be anti incumbency against a government that has ruled for so long.
§ The host of scams in UPA 2 (Coalgate, 2G, CWG, Armsgate etc). Most people in the country believe that the UPA 2 was the most corrupt government in free India. There is a massive anti corruption movement in the country and this is the major cause for the dismal prospects of the Congress.
§ The surge in voter turnout. Higher voter turnout has historically meant that people want to boot out people in power. This time too, it doesn't seem any different.
§ Weak Leadership. The Congress has failed to produce a leader who can capture the imagination of the masses. Their reluctant prince “Rahul Gandhi” hasn’t had much of an impact. And unfortunately for the Congress, Sonia Gandhi has been unwell. Thus, the party cadre of the Congress is demoralized in the absence of a strong leader.
2. There is a Pro-Modi Wave in India
o All pundits agree that the Modi wave exists. But they disagree on how strong this wave is. Some say it is restricted to the "Hindi Heartland" (UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan). Others claim that there is a Modi Tsunami ripping across the whole country. And a few believe that the Modi Wave is now a Modi tsuNaMo (pun intended).
o Anyway, the BJP led NDA is largely expected to comfortable reach the 272 mark. Barring the possibility of a few ugly surprises, the BJP should be able to make the government without the help of temperamental regional leaders like Jayalalitha (AIDMK), Maywati (BSP), Mamata Banerjee (AITMC)
3. The Third Front has failed (as expected)
o 2014 was expected to be a year of the third front. But this doesn't seem to be so.
o The idea of having many regional political parties coming together was always a flawed one. Imagine having rivals BSP and SP, TMC and CPI, AIDMK and DMK in one coalition! It is laughable to say the least!
o All the leaders of all the regional parties who were expected to form the third front have Prime Ministerial ambitions. Only fools can expect them to stick around together while forgetting personal aims.
1. There is a HUGE anti-Congress Wave across the country
o Indeed, this is the surest prediction of pundits across the political spectrum.
o But why do they think so?
§ Congress has ruled India for 10 years - a very long time. In any healthy democracy, there is bound to be anti incumbency against a government that has ruled for so long.
§ The host of scams in UPA 2 (Coalgate, 2G, CWG, Armsgate etc). Most people in the country believe that the UPA 2 was the most corrupt government in free India. There is a massive anti corruption movement in the country and this is the major cause for the dismal prospects of the Congress.
§ The surge in voter turnout. Higher voter turnout has historically meant that people want to boot out people in power. This time too, it doesn't seem any different.
§ Weak Leadership. The Congress has failed to produce a leader who can capture the imagination of the masses. Their reluctant prince “Rahul Gandhi” hasn’t had much of an impact. And unfortunately for the Congress, Sonia Gandhi has been unwell. Thus, the party cadre of the Congress is demoralized in the absence of a strong leader.
2. There is a Pro-Modi Wave in India
o All pundits agree that the Modi wave exists. But they disagree on how strong this wave is. Some say it is restricted to the "Hindi Heartland" (UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan). Others claim that there is a Modi Tsunami ripping across the whole country. And a few believe that the Modi Wave is now a Modi tsuNaMo (pun intended).
o Anyway, the BJP led NDA is largely expected to comfortable reach the 272 mark. Barring the possibility of a few ugly surprises, the BJP should be able to make the government without the help of temperamental regional leaders like Jayalalitha (AIDMK), Maywati (BSP), Mamata Banerjee (AITMC)
3. The Third Front has failed (as expected)
o 2014 was expected to be a year of the third front. But this doesn't seem to be so.
o The idea of having many regional political parties coming together was always a flawed one. Imagine having rivals BSP and SP, TMC and CPI, AIDMK and DMK in one coalition! It is laughable to say the least!
o All the leaders of all the regional parties who were expected to form the third front have Prime Ministerial ambitions. Only fools can expect them to stick around together while forgetting personal aims.
The Election Season has been a long and eventful one. It would be unfair to close an article without talking about the biggest news makers this season. And so, here I present, a few awards that should be awarded to our Netas.
1. Mr. Foot in Mouth Award (Azam Khan – Samajwadi Party)
He's had numerous run ins with the media (including for suspending police officers because they couldn't find his 'lost buffaloes') in the past. But this time he crossed the line of decency. His remarks claiming that "Only Muslim soldiers won India the Kargil War" clearly reek of a mindset bent on extracting every bit of political mileage on religious and identity politics. That he refused to apologize has not helped his case.
2. The “Slapmaster” ( Mr. Arvind Kejriwal- AAP)
Arvind Kerjiwal has indeed become the new flag of the Congress. Why? Because recently he has had a huge palm outlined struck right across his face! He was slapped not once; not even twice, but three times on three different road shows. And these slaps were no meek ones, they were massive hits that are generally only seen in saas bahu soaps. That the media kept showing the slap again and again made many feel, Mr. Kejriwal was the new age "bahu" being slapped by an angry "saas". And oh, don't forget, stones were also pelted on Kejriwal during a rally in Varanasi. Mr. Kejriwal, atleast for your sake, please agree to take some security now!
3. The Giant Slayer (Mr. Arnab Goswami – Editor in Chief Times Now)
Mr. Goswami (infamous for his warcry "INDIA WANTS TO KNOW") was the most talked about journalist in January this year. Why? Because he mercilessly tore apart arguably one of the biggest politicians in India today - Rahul Gandhi. His fierce, pointed and at times savage questions wrenched apart an underprepared Rahul Gandhi. This interview broke not only television records but also the prospects of the Congress badly. Rahul's one line reply to every question ("RTI, Women's Empowerment, Food Security Bill") became a butt of jokes overnight. And Congress went into an overdrive protecting their “young Yuvraaj”. If you are having a bad day at work and want some inspiration, do look up this interview. You will thank God for not making you Rahul and suddenly all your stress will disappear.
4. The Iron Man of India (with a 56 inch chest) (Narendra Modi – BJP)
He has been at his feet, addressing at least three rallies a day, in different corners of the country, for the last 8 months!! Truly, his vocal cords are made of steel. Plus, he can fly around the country in super fast "Adani" planes (which are rumored to be faster than superman himself!) And now, this iron man from Gujarat is set to take over India!
Hope you've voted wisely!
-Tejas
1. Mr. Foot in Mouth Award (Azam Khan – Samajwadi Party)
He's had numerous run ins with the media (including for suspending police officers because they couldn't find his 'lost buffaloes') in the past. But this time he crossed the line of decency. His remarks claiming that "Only Muslim soldiers won India the Kargil War" clearly reek of a mindset bent on extracting every bit of political mileage on religious and identity politics. That he refused to apologize has not helped his case.
2. The “Slapmaster” ( Mr. Arvind Kejriwal- AAP)
Arvind Kerjiwal has indeed become the new flag of the Congress. Why? Because recently he has had a huge palm outlined struck right across his face! He was slapped not once; not even twice, but three times on three different road shows. And these slaps were no meek ones, they were massive hits that are generally only seen in saas bahu soaps. That the media kept showing the slap again and again made many feel, Mr. Kejriwal was the new age "bahu" being slapped by an angry "saas". And oh, don't forget, stones were also pelted on Kejriwal during a rally in Varanasi. Mr. Kejriwal, atleast for your sake, please agree to take some security now!
3. The Giant Slayer (Mr. Arnab Goswami – Editor in Chief Times Now)
Mr. Goswami (infamous for his warcry "INDIA WANTS TO KNOW") was the most talked about journalist in January this year. Why? Because he mercilessly tore apart arguably one of the biggest politicians in India today - Rahul Gandhi. His fierce, pointed and at times savage questions wrenched apart an underprepared Rahul Gandhi. This interview broke not only television records but also the prospects of the Congress badly. Rahul's one line reply to every question ("RTI, Women's Empowerment, Food Security Bill") became a butt of jokes overnight. And Congress went into an overdrive protecting their “young Yuvraaj”. If you are having a bad day at work and want some inspiration, do look up this interview. You will thank God for not making you Rahul and suddenly all your stress will disappear.
4. The Iron Man of India (with a 56 inch chest) (Narendra Modi – BJP)
He has been at his feet, addressing at least three rallies a day, in different corners of the country, for the last 8 months!! Truly, his vocal cords are made of steel. Plus, he can fly around the country in super fast "Adani" planes (which are rumored to be faster than superman himself!) And now, this iron man from Gujarat is set to take over India!
Hope you've voted wisely!
-Tejas